Volcanic Eruption and Disruption: Youth Well-being After the Grindavík Evacuation in Iceland

Abstract

In November 2023 seismic activity prompted the evacuation of Grindavík, dispersing school-aged children across about 70 schools across Iceland. This displacement disrupted social ties, housing stability and schooling continuity, while creating ongoing uncertainty about community re-inhabitation. This first study of the well-being of children from Grindavík examines how disaster-driven displacement affected the well-being of students aged 12–16 years using data from the 2025 Icelandic Youth Study (15–17 months post- evacuation), which included a dedicated Grindavík module. We compared students evacuated after the eruption (n = 235), students who had moved away from Grindavík before the eruption (n = 148) and a national reference group (n = 17,315), allowing us to separate evacuation-specific experiences from those associated with relocation more generally. Regression models adjusting for subjective socioeconomic status, grade, gender and non-Icelandic background showed that evacuees reported lower life satisfaction (β = −0.26, CI [−0.43, −0.09]) and school belonging (β = −0.41, CI [−0.55, −0.27]), along with higher psychosomatic symptoms (β = 0.24, CI [0.10, 0.39]) than the national reference group. Prior movers did not differ in life satisfaction or belonging, but showed more psychosomatic complaints, absenteeism, substance use and bullying victimisation. Direct comparisons revealed that evacuees had lower life satisfaction (β = −0.27, CI [−0.50, −0.04]) and school belonging (β = −0.34, CI [−0.56, −0.13]) than prior movers, indicating evacuation-specific differences. Moderation analyses suggested that wellbeing differences for evacuees were broadly consistent across socioeconomic and grade levels, but gender differences were notable: negative effects on life satisfaction and school belonging were substantially larger among girls than boys. Overall, the results indicate that forced evacuation was consistently associated with weaker psychosocial well-being, largely irrespective of family background or age, but with stronger socio-emotional impacts among girls. Comparisons with prior movers highlight that disaster-driven displacement carries distinctive consequences beyond the challenges of relocation, underscoring the need for targeted educational and welfare responses.