Dropout or a break from study? Experiences of young people in high school andthose who belong to a dropout group

Abstract

Post-compulsory education is widely acknowledged for its benefits to both society and students themselves. In Iceland, education for students aged six to sixteen is compulsory through both primary and lower-secondary levels. After graduation over 95% of students enrol in upper-secondary education. However, internationally comparable measures reveal that Iceland’s upper-secondary school dropout rates remain relatively high compared to those in other Nordic countries and across Europe, despite a downward trend in recent years. Meanwhile, the proportion of young people not in education, employment or training (NEETs) is consistently one of the lowest in Europe. Unemployment rates in Iceland tend to be very low compared to many other countries and labour participation is high. On average, Icelandic students also graduate later in life than students in other Nordic countries. This raises the question of whether a substantial group of “atypical dropouts” exists among early school leavers in Iceland – young people who resemble those who stay in school but opt to take a year or two off from their studies, perhaps attracted by the vibrant labour market. The relatively easy re-entry into upper-secondary education in Iceland may further support this pattern. We analysed data from the 2022 Icelandic Youth Study focusing on early school leavers aged 18–24 who have neither enrolled in nor graduated from an upper-secondary programme. The study employed a telephone interview survey using a probability sample drawn from nearly complete national records of upper-secondary school enrolees. Out of an initial sample of 2,000 individuals split equally between early leavers and non-leavers, 878 interviews were completed. Based on self-reported educational status, 276 were confirmed as early school leavers and 602 were non-leavers. We compared early leavers and non-leavers on key predictors of school dropout: parental financial support and encouragement, well-being during compulsory school, feelings as well as expectations of obtaining a satisfying and well-paid job by age 30. Within the early leaver group, participants were further compared based on their intent to resume studies, and their reasons for dropping out were analysed via both open- and closed-ended questions. Notably, approximately two thirds of early school leavers planned to resume their studies within two years. A clear difference emerged between leavers and non-leavers across all hypothesised predictors of dropout. However, within the early leaver group, those who planned to resume their studies did not differ markedly from those who did not – aside from one key factor: their expectations regarding the likelihood of having an enjoyable and well-paying job by age 30. The overall pattern of findings was similar across both groups. The most reported reasons for leaving school included lack of motivation, low academic self-efficacy and a diminished sense of purpose. The pattern of responses was not distinctly dissimilar between those with and without plans for further studies. As the sample size is modest and the risk of nonresponse bias is considerable, the findings should be regarded as indicative rather than conclusive. Nonetheless, the overall pattern does not support the notion of a substantial subgroup of high-functioning young individuals who simply take a temporary break from schooling – though such cases undoubtedly exist. While Iceland’s strong labour market and accessible upper-secondary education undoubtedly contribute to low NEET rates, our findings suggest that these outcomes reflect early school leavers having access to viable opportunities, rather than a labour market that attracts students away from education.