The 2024 Alþingi election: Is extreme electoral volatility the new norm?

Abstract

The 2024 Alþingi election resulted in substantial losses for the coalition government that had ruled Iceland since 2017. The three governing parties (the Left-Green Movement, Independence Party, and Progressive Party) secured a combined 29.5% of the vote, down from 54.3% three years earlier. We present an analysis of the 2024 election, informed by preliminary results from the Icelandic National Election Study. We examine the 2024 election through the theoretical lenses of economic voting and the cost of ruling, and place our findings in the context of post-crisis Icelandic electoral politics. Our analysis indicates that the 2024 election campaign was dominated by economic considerations, adversely affecting the governing parties. Economic concerns likely contributed to high levels of electoral volatility, as nearly half (49%) of all voters switched parties between 2021 and 2024. Governing parties lost badly and opposition parties (aside from parties furthest to the left) gained votes. The election results are also explored in terms of issue salience, post-crisis trends in political attitudes and behaviour, and voters’ media use. Our findings align with the established trend of a high cost of ruling in post-crisis Icelandic politics. In 2021, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, an ideologically incongruent coalition was able to maintain power due to perceptions of competence. By contrast, in 2024, as economic concerns took centre stage, ideological incongruence became a liability for coalition survival. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for our understanding of post-crisis Icelandic politics and their potential influence on future elections.